London–A no-fly zone over Libya would likely have a limited impact on Muammar Qadhafi's offensives against rebel forces and civilians, military experts said Tuesday, as pressure appeared to be intensifying for restrictions.
Launching its annual report on international military might, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said the use of jets by Qadhafi loyalists appeared to pose less of a threat than the deployment of attack helicopters–which can get around flight prohibitions because they are far harder to detect.
The report also warned that defense budget cuts in the West over the last year had accelerated a shift in military powers toward emerging countries in Asia and the Middle East.
Retired British Army Brigadier Ben Barry told reporters that a protracted conflict would likely see opposition forces increasingly able to match the capability of loyalists.
Much of Libya's regular army still under Qadhafi's control is poorly equipped, lacks a coherent command structure and is probably suffering from waning morale, he said.
"The longer this goes on the greater the chances of the rebels increasing their combat capability, and the more chance there is for sanctions to bite," Barry said.
Barry said that though there are better equipped elite forces around Tripoli, they didn't appear to have the capability to contain protests in the capital and simultaneously join offensives elsewhere.
"Using these troops outside of Tripoli could loosen his grip there," Barry told reporters.
The institute estimated that as of November, Libya had 76,000 active troops and 40,000 militia fighter available as a reserve force. Many of those forces had been based in eastern Libya and sided with the opposition, with elite troops and parts of the air force allied with loyalists closer to Tripoli, Barry said.
Military aerospace analyst Douglas Barrie said Qadhafi has around 300 combat aircraft, but that far fewer are likely to be operational and the leader appeared increasingly reliant on around 35 attack helicopters.
Because they are far smaller and slower moving than jets, it means traditional methods used to enforce a no-fly zone could fail to catch them, he said. Some radar can struggle to distinguish between a helicopter and a fast-moving car or truck, for instance.
US Defense Secretary Robert Gates has suggested a no-fly zone would require an attack on Libya's air defenses. Barrie said that would not necessarily be required, and that Qadhafi's regime was poorly equipped in any case. "It's not a risk free proposition, but the Soviet-era kit that the Libyans are equipped with is not state of the art," Barrie said.
The United States and NATO allies on Monday increased the number of surveillance flights over Libya, while Britain and France said they had also begun drafting a UN resolution that could establish a no-fly zone.
Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague said diplomats were working on possible flight restrictions, but stressed no decision had been made yet to introduce it at the UN Security Council.
The institute's annual report said that last year Britain made an 8 percent cut to its annual 37 billion pound (US$59 billion) defense budget over four years, and launched an alliance with France aimed at pooling some nuclear resources and equipment.
Other European powers and the US are also seeking military efficiency savings.
"In other regions–notably Asia and the Middle East–military spending and arms acquisitions are booming. There is persuasive evidence that a global redistribution of military power is under way," said the institute's chief executive John Chipman.
