Nearly half of Egyptians between the ages of 19 and 29 are “willing to migrate” abroad, a recent survey by the International Organization for Migration found.
“Egypt after January 25: Survey of Youth Migration Intentions,” based on a survey of 1417 Egyptians between the ages of 19 and 29 conducted in May sought this generation's perception of the future of their country and whether “turmoil, reform and uncertainty may influence positively or negatively their intention to migrate.”
Of the 750 respondents who said they were “willing to migrate abroad,” 73 percent said they felt driven out by the lack of job opportunities in Egypt, 62 percent by bad living conditions, 49 percent by the possibility of a higher income, and 15 percent by family pressures and trouble.
The unemployment rate for Egyptians between 25 and 29 is over 20 percent, according to official government statistics, though many economists suspect it may be higher.
The report includes statistics from government agency CAPMAS, according to which the Egyptian workforce is comprised of 26.3 million people, with 51 percent of those employed in the service industry. Unemployment rose by 0.3 percent after the revolution and stands at 3.1 million. Approximately 66 percent of the unemployed have no work experience.
Forty-one percent of respondents said that the revolution had made them consider migration “in a minor way,” while 15 percent said it has had no effect. Forty-four percent said they were already considering migration before January’s events.
The International Organization for Migration said in an earlier report that mass-scale migration in Egypt began after the 1973 war when the increase in oil prices created demand for labor in the Gulf countries.
Gulf countries – and in particular Saudi Arabia where there are some 1.2 million Egyptian migrant workers – remain the most favored country for Egyptian migrants. North America, Italy, France, Libya and Jordan are also destination countries. An estimated 4 million Egyptians were living abroad in 2006 according to CAPMAS figures, while data from the Egypt Market Panel Survey from the same year indicates that nearly 5 percent of Egyptian households have a member living abroad.
Both interviewees with and without the intention to migrate are cautiously optimistic about the political climate and security situation following the revolution.
The majority (63 percent) of interviewees with migration intentions think that both the political climate and security in the country are “slightly better than before.” This number drops to 58 percent and 50 percent respectively for those without plans to migrate.
Among interviewees without plans to migrate, 17 percent think the political climate and security are “much better than before,” compared with 11 percent and 13 percent respectively for those planning to travel abroad.
There is a notable difference between the two groups with regard to their job situation that may be driving some abroad: 26 percent of those who plan to migrate lost their job after 25 January compared with 16 percent of those who intend to stay.
Private sector workers – and in particular unskilled workers – were hit particularly hard by the uprising as shops in some areas closed for extended periods and the generally economy slowed.
Egypt’s GDP is expected to grow by 1.6 percent this year according to a recent study by Bloomberg, a financial news and data service. That number is down from about 5 percent last year.
Twenty percent of interviewees with an intention to migrate were asked to take unpaid leave during the revolution and 12 percent had their working hours cut in half. This compares to 17 percent and 9 percent among those who don’t plan to migrate.
Seventy percent of survey respondents do not possess a passport, but nearly 90 percent of this group plans to obtain passports in the future.
