Potential electoral alliances among Islamist parties are likely to leave a lonesome Freedom and Justice Party braving the upcoming four-round parliamentary elections slated for 22 April by itself.
Despite assurances that the elections would be free and fair, and FJP promises of complete judicial supervision, the party has failed to earn the trust of even Islamist political players on the scene, who are forming alliances away from the Muslim Brotherhood’s political arm.
On Monday, President Mohamed Morsy reached out to different political parties and figures, extending an invitation for public dialogue around the transparency of the upcoming elections.
But the call for dialogue has not concealed rising tensions with several Islamist groups, which may reflect on electoral alliances or the lack thereof. And even if predictions are for an overtly Islamist party, whether this fulfills the Brotherhood’s political agenda and aspirations is not known.
Youssef Talaat, FJP spokesperson, says the party is currently studying the possibility of entering coalitions as the parliamentary elections loom.
“We are still discussing whether we should form alliances, and if we do decide to do it, we will then discuss which parties we are going to align with,” he says, adding that the party will announce its position within the coming few days.
Talaat remained vague on exactly which parties the FJP would approach, saying all options were on the table, whether with Islamist parties or others.
Its main opponent, the Salafi Nour Party, which came second in the 2011 parliamentary elections after the FJP, announced Monday that it would also participate in the elections, adding that the government must ensure a free and fair process. Some conditions put on the table by the party include guarantees that ministries in the Brotherhood-formed Cabinet that are overlooking the polling should be neutral.
Nour Party spokesperson Nader Bakkar had said earlier that his party had reservations on the date of the election, adding that it should have been set through consensus with diverse political powers.
The party’s senior official, Bassam al-Zarqa, said the door was open for electoral alliances that “must conform to the principles of Islamic Sharia.”
But recent rifts between the Nour Party and the FJP render electoral deals between the two highly unlikely.
The relationship between the two parties suffered a strong blow last week when Morsy dismissed his environmental adviser, Khaled Alam Eddin, who belongs to the Nour Party, triggering a tirade launched by Bakkar, who demanded an official apology.
Some analysts purport that the Nour Party is also arguably distancing itself from the FJP as it recognizes its diminishing popularity ahead of the elections, given the growing frustrations with ongoing political instability and economic crisis.
Whether this rift will translate into a fully fledged competition between the two forces as opposed to some coordination outside the scope of an alliance is yet to be seen.
The Nour Party aside, Islamist alliances are already brewing, with parties choosing to run in the elections against the FJP, saying the FJP is simply not interested.
Yasser Abdel Moneim, spokesperson for the Watan Party, a splinter party from the Nour, says his party is close to forming an alliance with other parties, and also contesting 100 percent of the seats.
He explains that the alliance is shaping up to include all political parties with an Islamist inclination, with the exception of the FJP and Nour Party.
“We seek a national Islamist alliance. We welcome any Islamist party; however, the current situation makes it difficult, since the FJP and Nour want to run individually,” he says. “This is their vision.”
Other party officials agree.
In an interview with Egypt Independent, its founder, Emad Abdel Ghafour, says that while the Watan party’s relationship with the FJP is “very strong,” an alliance is unlikely, since “the Brotherhood and its party see themselves as our ‘big brother,’ and so if there was an invitation, it is they who should extend it.”
Similarly, Alaa Abul Nasr, secretary general of the Construction and Development Party — the political arm of the Jama’a al-Islamiya, and the first to declare its support for Morsy’s election plan announcement — explains that aligning with the FJP is not on the table, simply because they are choosing to run individually as a party.
“It’s their decision to contest the elections alone. That’s why we didn’t approach them,” he says.
Nasr adds that his party is in negotiations with other Islamist parties to contest the election as a united front.
Amr Hesham Rabie, expert at Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies, maintains that even though the FJP is facing competition, it is not in dire need of electoral alliances.
During the 2011 parliamentary elections, the FJP wanted to prove it was flexible, so it created alliances with civil parties. But being in a position of authority now, with Morsy at the helm of the executive, the situation is different.
“Now, they don’t need to prove anything so they will run alone,” Rabie asserts.
Emad Gad, another analyst at Al-Ahram center, also believes that the FJP in uninterested in alliances.
He argues that the party may choose to form alliances “just so they can say we’re aligning, but at the end of the day, it will be with small parties that are under their control.”
Talaat, however, dismisses claims that the FJP prefers to run in the elections solo, saying “nobody can speak on our behalf.”
He explains that the party is contesting 100 percent of the seats, and will compete in all governorates for individual seats, as well as party lists. He floats the idea of “coordinating” with other parties in certain constituencies.
Adding his voice to the other Islamist parties, Hatem Abu Zeid, media coordinator for the Asala Party, also rules out an alliance with the FJP, saying that while his party seeks to coordinate with different Islamist groups, the reason the FJP is not one of them is “known.”
“The FJP is looking to contest the majority of seats in Parliament and that’s why they won’t form any alliances,” Abu Zeid says, explaining that the budding Islamist alliance may not be limited to an electoral capacity.
“We are looking to make it an open-ended political alliance with a legislative agenda that will aspire to eventually form a government,” he says.
Currently, the most likely alliance of Islamist parties, which is still in the works, is set to comprise parties like the Salafi Asala, Watan, and Building and Development parties. The alliance is trying to position itself as the biggest threat to the FJP since they both contest the majority of the seats.
Meanwhile, other electoral alliances include one initiated by the Islamist-leaning Wasat Party, which is also looking to coordinate with moderate parties for the upcoming elections.
Wasat Party head Abul Ela Mady had said the coalition aims to eliminate Egypt’s current state of division and polarization.
In a news conference last month, the party extended an invitation to several political parties, including the Islamist Hadara, Fadila, Strong Egypt, Reformation and Renaissance, and Egyptian Current parties, as well as the liberal Ghad al-Thawra Party.
Amr Farouk, Wasat Party spokesperson, says talks with nine different parties have been held to discuss the final form of the moderate alliance, which seeks to claim a more representational capacity.
Farouk adds that while his party has no intention to align with the FJP, it may, however, cooperate with it on some level when it comes to individual seats, provided that the competition is “civil.”
He says his party is eyeing a majority of the seats, ambitiously banking on the swing voters who may think twice before giving their votes to Islamists.
Whether these alliances — both the radical and the moderate — represent a threat to the Brothers is questionable.
Sabry Amer, FJP member and former MP, says he is confident an Islamist alliance will not hurt the FJP’s chances of winning the majority of the seats.
“There is no problem with competing on the party lists, since each list will get two to three seats and I believe we have a good chance with individual seats as well,” he says.
He welcomes the idea of an Islamist alliance in general, saying his party “hopes for decent Islamist alliances.”
But not all analysts feel that way.
Rabie says this Islamist coalition may very well be the FJP’s biggest threat. Unlike the 2011 parliamentary elections, he explains, the alliance decreases the FJP’s chance of winning the majority of the seats.
For Gad, the question will only be determined by the level of integrity of the polling process.
With a strong support base from different Islamist groups and shortly before disagreements erupted, the FJP won 47 percent of the seats in the parliamentary elections held in 2011, followed by the Nour Party, which garnered 23 percent.
But Gad says that today, an Islamist alliance might not necessarily work against the FJP, explaining there can be two main coalitions in Parliament that will eventually work together.
This piece was originally published in Egypt Independent's weekly print edition.
