The Wall Street Journal on Monday outlined the Trump administration’s wish to form an Arab military force in Syria to replace US troops there. US officials told the newspaper that John Bolton, Donald Trump’s national security advisor, recently called Abbas Kamel, Egypt’s chief of intelligence and a major figure in President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi’s government, to seek military and financial support for the initiative.
Officials also told the Journal that Gulf Arab states would join in the efforts. “Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE have all been approached with respect to financial support and more broadly to contribute,” one administration official said. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are funding Syrian fighters that are supported by the US government.
The goal of the force would be to secure and protect the area from terrorist organizations like the “Islamic State”, while also serving one of Trump’s main campaign promises of having other countries sharing foreign policy burdens with the US. The initative could also benefit US business interests in Syria and the wider region. Private military contractors have expressed interest in getting the plan off the ground.
Disturbing the peace?
However, Bente Scheller, the head of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Beirut, says Egypt and Saudi Arabia are likely to be skeptical about establishing such a military force. “Neither of those countries have sent many troops abroad in the last decade and I think they both have little interest in doing so,” she told DW. Scheller added that this Arab force would need the consent of Syrian President Bashar Assad to even be allowed in the area.
Moreover, the presence of this Arab force could disturb the Kurds, who control the area. “Kurdish forces and civilians certainly have no interest in having any Arab troops coming to the areas they control,” Scheller said. She also noted that even the Arabs already present in northeast Syria would not be likely to trust a new military occupation force.
Conflicting interests
Other actors in the region, including Turkey, may be more open to the proposal. Officials in Ankara have long been opposed to an autonomous Kurdish state and deploying an international Arab force might “water down” Kurdish power, Scheller said.
Russia and Iran, however, are less likely to support a new US-allied military presence in the region. Iran in particular, a country that has used militias itself in Lebanon, Syria and Iraq to expand its influence, would be dubious of an Arab force of Sunni countries that includes its archrival Saudi Arabia.
“This is one of the policy suggestions that I have suggested before, but there are many obstacles that may prevent it from coming into reality, with the main one being the absence of any clear American vision in Syria,” Hassan Mneimneh, a fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington, told DW. “Adding such an ambiguous element to the already complex Syrian war will just make things worse.”
Ultimately, warned Scheller, forming an Arab force in Syria risks bringing in other outside parties whose interests extend beyond Washington’s. “It is a very short-sighted policy in all regards.” she said. “It is politically unlikely that any actor on the ground would be fond of this and it’s unlikely the US would have any real control over countries involved in this force.”
