A recent study issued by the US Institute of Peace — which is associated with the US Congress — found that Article 76 of the Egyptian Constitution served to largely confine presidential candidacy to the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP). According to the study, the NDP has traditionally monopolized political participation, a fact made evident by the low turnout — 23 percent — in 2005 presidential elections.
The study also asserted that Gamal Mubarak, son of President Hosni Mubarak, was set to inherit executive power from his father. In this event, the study found, the younger Mubarak’s policies would most likely support current trends of "liberal reform" while further clamping down on domestic Islamic movements in an attempt to guarantee the semi-authoritarian regime’s continuity.
The study went on to note that American decision-makers believed the Egyptian regime had been forced to resort to reformist policies in order to attain legitimacy in the eyes of the public, once it found it could no longer depend on US support–which had become contingent upon allowing certain rights and freedoms.
According to the report’s authors, US and Egyptian decision-makers could not foresee that regime policies would end up strengthening Islamic groups, especially the Muslim Brotherhood (MB), which is considered Egypt’s largest and most popular opposition group. Nevertheless, according to the study, the MB would not secure a victory even if allowed to field candidates in upcoming presidential elections.
The study concluded by saying the regime’s biggest challenge was to implement democratic changes while simultaneously safeguarding national security amid rising popular discontent and deteriorating economic conditions.
Translated from the Arabic Edition.
