In an unprecedented move in the history of party systems, Egypt’s ruling National Democratic Party (NDP) is fielding multiple candidates for the same seat in more than a hundred districts in the parliamentary poll set for 28 November.
On Sunday, the NDP dropped a bombshell that challenged conventional political wisdom with the announcement of its final candidates list that included nearly 850 contenders for 508 parliamentary seats. In nearly 150 districts, the NDP fielded at least two candidates for the same seat.
“This is a catastrophe,” said Amr Hashim, an expert with Al-Ahram Center for Political and Strategic Studies (ACPSS). “I do not know where they came up with that idea, we have never heard of it before, nor have we read about it in any books.”
Yet, for NDP supporters, this decision is part of a well-deliberated plan to accommodate all party members that scored high in the primaries.
“With this disciplined plurality, the party has accommodated all social forces which can influence the elections…especially in rural districts where family and tribal ties are present,” wrote Abdullah Kamal, an NDP member and editor of the state-owned Rose-Al-Youssef daily, yesterday.
On the same day, another staunch NDP defender Mohamed Ali Ibrahim hailed the party’s decision as democratic.
“The party found that some candidates achieved similar results in the primaries. If the party had favored one candidate over the other, it would have been a sign of dictatorship…This [decision] is an example of ultimate democracy,” he wrote yesterday in Al-Gomhuriyya, another government paper.
The announcement came on the heels of contentious NDP primaries held in different provinces, presumably to select candidates with the highest chances of winning. Yet, the final outcome overloaded the nation’s 254 constituencies with hundreds of NDP members. In several districts, the party’s official contenders has reached five.
Fielding multiple candidates for the same party carries the risk of splitting, rather than aggregating, the votes which can ultimately harm NDP candidates’ chances of winning. Yet, as there is no full judicial monitoring of the poll, Hashim expects the vote to be manipulated to ensure a sweeping victory for NDP candidates.
“This decision could have served the opposition if the elections had been fair and free. But this will not happen,” said Hashim. “I expect the NDP to win an 85-percent majority given the absence of judicial supervision,.
According to Amr el-Shobaki, another political scientist with ACPSS, even if the race is clean, NDP vote splitting cannot benefit the opposition, as the ruling party fielded multiple candidates only in districts where victory is a foregone conclusion.
“The NDP is confident that one of its candidates will win in these districts where there is no real competition with the opposition,” said el-Shobaki. “Opposition and Muslim Brotherhood candidates have no presence in these districts.”
On 7 November, the High Elections Commission stopped receiving applications from hopeful MPs. It announced the final list of 5725 candidates running for the parliament’s 508 contested seats, including 64 that are exclusively allocated for women. The number includes almost 850 from the NDP, 132 from the Muslim Brotherhood and 250 from the Wafd Party.
“The NDP does not want to upset anyone and this is why we ended up with an overload, not only of independent candidates but also NDP candidates,” added el-Shobaki.
In the last two elections, the NDP primaries were followed by feuds that culminated in tens of members breaking ranks with the party and running as independents. The 2000 election was an embarrassment to the ruling party, especially after defectors defeated NDP official candidates. Winning only 39 percent of the seats, the NDP had to re-integrate 181 independents into the party to secure a two-thirds majority .
The party faced the same dilemma in 2005 when its official candidates won only 34 percent of the seats. The NDP resorted to the same tactic, readmitting nearly 160 victorious independent candidates.
By fielding multiple candidates for the same seat, the party seems determined to avoid such splits and embarrassments this year. Yet, even with this odd strategy, the NDP failed to stem divisions.
Ezzat Badawi, an NDPer at heart, had full faith in the selection criteria that party leaders preached. This confidence prompted him to apply for nomination in a Cairo district.
“They said the selection process would be fully transparent, impartial and democratic but we realized that words were different from actions,” said Badawi.
The party threw its backing behind a businessman with strong ties to the party’s leadership, he alleges.
“They chose a candidate who is a big party donor and is known to have strong links with party elites,” added Badawi, who decided last week to resign from the NDP and run as an independent against the party’s official candidate.
If he wins, Badawi promises never to return to the NDP, as most victorious independents usually do.
“If I make it to the parliament as an independent, I will kept this status according to which people have chosen me,” he pledges.
Badawi is one of at least 50 NDP members who quit the party in objection to the candidates list. Disappointed with the outcome of the selection process, several NDP members have protested over their failure to secure party nomination. Some members reportedly vowed to throw their full backing behind the Muslim Brotherhood–the NDP’s main parliamentary foe.
According to experts, these feuds attest to the internal weakness of the NDP, which lacks all tenets of a strong political party.
“If the NDP were a party with a coherent political discourse and well-trained and loyal members, these members would have respected the party’s decision and not quit that easily,” said el-Shobaki.
According to Bahey el-din Hassan, director of Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies, this abundance of NDP candidates will exacerbate electoral tensions and culminate in a more violent poll day.
“I expect violence to reach very high levels on election day, especially among NDP candidates because most them enjoy political or financial leverage and have strong tribal and family ties,” said Hassan.
In 2005, election violence perpetrated mostly by candidates’ supporters and thugs left 13 people dead.
The upcoming parliamentary poll comes one year ahead of the much-anticipated presidential elections, an event of critical importance given the uncertainty over the future of Egypt’s presidency. Skeptics doubt Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s 82-year-old president, will be able to run for a sixth term given his reportedly ill-health.
In the meantime, the ruling party seems divided between an old guard that opposes the rise of Mubarak’s son Gamal to the presidency and a younger camp that seeks to forward the former banker’s political career. In recent months, Gamal’s camp has been dealt a blow as top party leaders affirmed that Mubarak senior would be the party’s official candidate in 2011.
“This conflict between the two groups shapes all NDP activities,” said Hassan. “The NDP’s inability to select a single candidate in some districts is related to this conflict.”
The party’s official list includes the regime’s old stalwarts, such as Ahmed Fathi Sorour, the speaker of the outgoing parliament, Zakariya Azmi, the influential presidential chief of staff, Kamal al-Shazly, former minister of state for People’s Assembly affairs, and Gamal’s protégé Ahmed Ezz, the NDP organization head and prominent steel tycoon. Yet, the list excludes three MP hopefuls who sponsored pro-Gamal campaigns in recent months.
“This is an indication that Gamal’s chances to succeed his father may be fading,” remarked Hassan.
