An economic research center has predicted possible outcomes for Egypt’s economy based on positive or negative results stemming from the Egyptian government’s battle with surging terror attacks. The most recent incidents have involved the death of dozens of army soldiers in Sinai, as well as the assassination of General Prosecutor Hesham Barakat.
If the government is able to curb terror operations, tourism will thrive, accounting for 17.5 percent of the GDP, up from 12.6 percent in 2013, according to the Egyptian Center for Economic Studies.
“Public investments grow significantly with LE180 billion expected in the fiscal year 2015/16 and LE237 billion in private investments with a growth rate of 15 percent in total investments,” the center said, sharing its predictions in case the government successfully handles terrorist attacks.
But if terrorism persists, economic indicators will turn negative, resulting in a "dramatic" 11 percent drop in tourism to a total of approximately three million visitors by 2024.
This drop will result in revenues of merely US$500 million by that time, the center predicted.
Persistent terrorism would also mean a 1 percent annual decline in the GDP, according to the center.
“Private consumption will decrease, thereby slowing economic activity due to an increasing sense of anxiety and insecurity,” read the report, which based its calculations on data from the ministries of finance and international cooperation.
