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Banking expert expects future inflation rates for the coming period

Banking expert Ramzi al-Jarm said that the rise in inflation rates in September to its highest level in four years since November 2018, was driven by the increase in food and cigarette prices.

He pointed out that the increase in food and cigarettes deviated from the expectations of the Central Bank of Egypt, which was at a level of 7 percent, with an increase or decrease of 2% until the end of 2022.

The inflation rate exceeded 15 percent during September 2022, compared to 14.6 percent in August, continuing its upward trajectory.

Inflation rates have rose by 1.6 percent in August 2022, while the inflation rate in Egyptian cities increased at 15.3 percent, compared to an average of 8 percent over the same period in the previous year.

Jarm added that the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) attributed the reasons for the increase to the rise in meat prices at a rate of 1.8 percent, smoke at a rate of 3.5 percent, eggs at a rate of 4.4 percent and vegetables at a rate of 6.2 percent.

He expected that the pace of inflation rates would accelerate significantly during the coming period, due to the repercussions of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and the repercussions of the rise in US interest rates, despite the government’s adoption of a package of social protection represented in increasing wages and salaries, raising the tax exemption limit, and applying exceptional bonuses.

CAPMAS had announced an increase in annual inflation rates to 15.3 percent for the month of September 2022, compared to 8.0 percent for the same month of the previous year.

The agency explained, in a statement, on Monday, that the monthly inflation rate rose to 1.6 percent during September 2022, due to an increase in the prices of the meat and poultry group by 1.8 percent, the dairy, cheese and eggs group by 4.4 percent, the vegetables group by 6.2 percent, the smoke group by 3.5 percent, and the smoke group by 3.5 percent. Goods and services used in home maintenance rose by 3.7 percent, medical products, devices and equipment group 1.3 percent, hospital services group by 4.5 percent, ready meals group 4.5 percent, and personal care group 3.4 percent.

The agency reported annual prices change rates in a variety of goods and services during September, as the food and beverages section recorded an increase of 21.5 percent, as a result of the increase in the prices of the cereals and bread group by 49.4 percent, and the prices of the fish and seafood group increased by 35.4 percent, and oils and fats by 33.2 percent, dairy, cheese and eggs group by 31.5 percent, sugar and sugary food group by 26.6 percent, and meat and poultry group by 21.4 percent.

The markets also witnessed an annual increase in the prices of the coffee, tea and cocoa group by 19.6 percent, and the mineral and carbonated water and natural juices group by 17.7 percent.

CAPMAS indicated that a group of commodities declined during the same period, including vegetables by -9.1 percent, and fruits by -2.1 percent.

According to CAPMAS, the prices of smoke increased by 12.9 percent, as well as clothes and shoes by 12.8 percent, and the housing, water, electricity, gas and fuel department recorded an increase of 6.5 percent, due to the increase in the prices of the water group and various services related to housing by 28.9 percent.

The Transport and Communications Department recorded an increase of 16.1 percent, as a result of the increase in the prices of the group spent on private transport by 21.8 percent.

 

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