Russian President Vladimir Putin knows how to find opportunity in crisis, and the metastasizing Iran war is the latest case in point.
Putin began the year projecting confidence about his campaign to subjugate Ukraine, despite incremental progress on the battlefield. But in early January, the Trump administration dealt a blow to Russia’s prestige with the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, a strategic partner of Moscow, in a daring commando raid.
And when the new war erupted in the Gulf region, Putin initially looked to be a loser: US-Israeli decapitation strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, another longtime ally of Russia, and decimated Iranian military targets. The strategic partnership Moscow inked with Iran last year appeared to be a mere scrap of paper.
Khamenei, it’s worth remembering, was only the latest friend of the Kremlin to fall: In early December 2024, just over a year before the toppling of Maduro, the regime of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad, a longtime client of Moscow, came crashing down.
But despite the geopolitical optics, Putin appears to be keeping eyes on his main prize: dismantling an independent Ukraine.
On Monday, the Kremlin leader spoke by phone with Trump, their first call since December. According to a readout from the Russian president’s aide, Yury Ushakov, the hour-long conversation covered the main issue of the day, the US-Israeli war with Iran, discussions Ushakov described as “very substantive.”
Crucially, the conversation also touched on Putin’s own target. Ushakov said the US president “reiterated his interest in seeing the conflict in Ukraine end as quickly as possible with a ceasefire to achieve a long-term settlement.”
Trump’s own take on that part of the conversation was slightly different. Asked about the call, Trump said the Kremlin leader “wants to be helpful” in the Middle East, but added, “I said, ‘You could be more helpful by getting the Ukraine-Russia war over with.’ That would be more helpful.”
Officially, Russia has condemned the US-Israeli military campaign. Putin expressed condolences over what he described in an official message as the “assassination” of Iran’s former supreme leader. But Putin has steered clear of personally criticizing Trump, as several observers have noted.
“In the end, the substance of any proposal (from Putin) might matter little,” said Hanna Notte, director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, on X. “Offering to play a constructive role, Putin can achieve his main objective – flatter Trump, stay on his good side – which is important (regarding): Russian objectives in Ukraine.”
A global energy crisis helps Putin
That call with Trump also comes as Russia’s economic fortunes appear to be shifting amid a burgeoning global energy crisis with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The price of oil on Monday surged past $100 per barrel, and experts have warned it could reach $150 per barrel by the end of March should disruptions in the crucial waterway continue.
That’s welcome news for Russia, a major oil exporter. What’s more, the Trump administration has temporarily reversed a pressure campaign on India, one of Russia’s most important customers, by granting Indian refiners a 30-day waiver to buy Russian oil currently stranded at sea.
Last year, the US Treasury Department slapped sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies and imposed secondary tariffs on India for its purchases of Russian oil, all as part of a bid to stem the flow of cash funding Moscow’s war machine.
In a meeting Monday with top advisers to assess the situation in global oil and gas markets, Putin appeared upbeat.
“Under the current conditions, competition among buyers for energy suppliers, for the assurance of stable, predictable oil and gas supplies, is intensifying,” he said. “In this regard, I certainly cannot help but say and remind not only my colleagues in this room but all our consumers in general that stability is precisely what Russian energy companies have always been known for.”
In recent months, the ability of Russia’s state finances to stay on a wartime footing had come into question, amid burgeoning inflation and a growing budget deficit. The prospect of higher revenue from oil and gas exports now gives the Russian economy a potential shot of adrenaline.
Russia may also have other geopolitical leverage when it comes to the Iran war.
In addition to Moscow’s defense and security ties with Tehran – multiple people familiar with US intelligence reporting say Russia is providing Iran with intelligence about the locations and movements of American assets in the Gulf region – Putin has longstanding personal relationships with a number of leaders in the Middle East.
Following the start of the US-Israeli campaign, Putin has had telephone conversations with King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa of Bahrain, President of the United Arab Emirates Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
Ukraine reaches out to Iran targets
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also has cards to play in the region: In recent days, the Ukrainians have stepped forward with offers to provide their expertise in countering Iran’s Shahed drones, which have attacked targets around the Gulf region.
But whether that help translates into goodwill in Washington is another matter. Trump has appeared to shrug off the reports of Russia supplying intelligence to Iran. And while international attention is focused on the crisis in the Middle East, Putin may find Western policymakers are distracted from Ukraine, where the war continues to grind on. In recent days, Russian drones and missiles have struck Ukrainian cities without generating major headlines.
In an analysis posted on X, Sam Greene, professor in Russian politics at King’s College London, suggested Putin’s long game continues to focus on his relationship with Trump.
“First, the idea that Putin suffers when he loses allies – whether Assad, Maduro or Khamenei – exists entirely in the heads of Western analysts and has no basis in observable fact,” Greene wrote. “There is (zero) evidence that he cares, that it affects his authority at home or his legitimacy abroad.”
And whatever Putin might feel about the death of the Iranian supreme leader, Greene added, “He’s not going to throw his relationship with Trump under the bus. For one thing, it won’t bring Khamenei back. But more importantly, Trump is Putin’s greatest source of leverage over Europe. He’ll keep his eye on the ball.”
For the time being, then, the global energy crisis may bring Putin new dividends as he presses on with his war on Ukraine.
