With polling stations are set to receive millions of voters on Sunday, Egyptian politicians and observers expect the new parliament to witness a remarkable retreat of Islamists, who, they say, will have to surrender their seats to the liberal Wafd Party.
“The Muslim Brotherhood will not be allowed to be the biggest opposition bloc in parliament again,” said Hossam Tamam, an expert on Islamist groups.
In 2005, the Muslim Brotherhood, the nation’s most organized opposition group, chalked up an unprecedented victory by grabbing 88 out of 444 contested seats and then establishing itself as the largest opposition group in the People’s Assembly. Yet the officially banned group might not be tolerated in parliament this time. The regime’s stalwarts have consistently vowed that Egypt’s oldest Islamist organization will not be allowed the same share of seats this time.
Last week, Moufeed Shehab, one of the ruling regime’s prominent figures, affirmed that letting the Brotherhood achieve an electoral triumph in 2005 was “a mistake” that will not be repeated.
This animosity has also been expressed in action. In the last few days, clashes erupted between the police and Muslim Brotherhood supporters, namely in the coastal city of Alexandria, one of the group’s electoral strongholds. Moreover, hundreds of the group’s members, including candidates in the elections, were detained nationwide.
“The 88 seats of the Muslim Brotherhood will not go to the group again but will not go to the ruling regime either,” said Tamam.
“At this juncture, the regime needs a political force that could help it beat the Muslim Brotherhood. Al-Wafd will benefit from this opportunity. I expect it to get at least 20 seats,” added Tamam.
In recent months, the liberal Wafd Party has made headlines with its remarkably civilized and fair internal elections that came on the heels of several years of internal feuds over a legitimate leadership. The party succeeded in attracting prominent figures to join it and since then has sought to present itself as a vehicle for political reform in Egypt.
“Given the regime’s attempt to weaken the Muslim Brotherhood and replace them with official opposition parties, it is logical that Al-Wafd would be the main opposition bloc,” said Hussein Abdel Razek, a prominent leader of the left-wing Tagammu party.
“First, Al-Wafd is participating with a large number of candidates. It also has strong tribal and family connections in the countryside,” added Abdel Razeq. “Plus, the party has financial capabilities that other parties do not have.”
Yet, the Wafd Party’s leaders do not share the same optimism about their fate in the Sunday poll.
“These are all hypotheses that will prove wrong; there is nothing that would make me feel optimistic,” said Mohamed Sherdy, the Wafd Party's official spokesman.
“I was pro-election and pro-participation but if we could go back in time, I think we should really reconsider it,” he said.
Sherdy is one of nearly 222 Wafd Party candidates running in the elections to the Egyptian parliament’s lower house. In September, the image of Sherdy’s rising party was shaken after the involvement of its chairman Sayyed al-Badawi in the sacking of the editor of a prominent opposition daily. Skeptics alleged that the move was part of a deal struck between the regime and the Wafd Party, whereby the bourgeois-led party will be secured a number of seats in return for isolating one of the regime’s most outspoken critics.
“What deals are you talking about? Thugs are beating us and the police is protecting them,” added Sherdy, who is running in a Port Said district.
“I do not think they want anybody from the opposition, they are chocking the opposition,” said Sherdy who expects his district to be rocked by violence on the election day but threatened to counterattack. “We will face violence with violence. Do they think we are weak?” asked Sherdy rhetorically.
Many human rights advocates expect this year’s poll to be marred by “unprecedented” levels of violence and vote rigging given the lack of full judicial supervision. In 2005, electoral violence cost at least 13 lives.
“If vote rigging will be within the limits of the 2000 and 2005 elections and does not get worse, I expect the opposition to garner less than 100 seats that will be distributed among the Wafd, Tagammu, Nasserist and other parties,” said Abdel Razek, adding that in all circumstances the ruling National Democratic Party will secure the two-thirds majority required to pass any constitutional amendment.
Nearly 5000 nominees are set to compete next week over 508 contested seats of the parliament’s lower house in 254 constituencies. Despite calls by some opposition figures to boycott a poll whose results “are a foregone conclusion,” all Egypt’s leading parties have decided to engage in the race.
Barely 15 of the Muslim Brotherhood’s 130 candidates will make it to the 2010 parliament, predicts Tamam
“The Muslim Brotherhood will not be given a share of [the opposition seats] that could allow them to mobilize a larger opposition in support of any alternative presidential candidate,” he said.
The make-up of the new parliament is crucial for the next presidential elections scheduled for 2011. By virtue of the 2005 constitutional amendment, an independent candidate needs to garner 250 signatures from the parliament’s lower and upper houses and municipal councils to be eligible to run for president.
During the summertime, the Muslim Brotherhood threw their full backing behind the former head of the UN nuclear watchdog Mohamed ElBaradei, who presented himself as a potential alternative to President Hosni Mubarak. Although the Muslim Brotherhood did not endorse him as a presidential candidate, it took it upon itself to collect signatures in support of the former diplomat’s reform petition.
“The NDP wants to be in full control of all scenarios and avoid any possibility for any opposition group to push forward an alternative candidate,” said Tamam.
